I've started each of the two PTQs this season 4-1. In the first PTQ in Pittsburgh I then lost the last two rounds, and in the second PTQ in Rockville I lost two out of the last three. I've gotten better at not letting my first loss tilt me, although the second loss still sometimes does. I really want to break the top 8 bubble. I'm pretty sure I'll be able to get there this season with how I'm playing right now if I open a good enough pool, but I don't think I'm quite playing well enough to take an average or good-but-not-great pool and squeeze an X-1-1 out of it.
And then today I went to a 16 man GPT and managed to not top 8 with a reasonable pool, losing my first two matches.
Part of me wants to chalk up the GPT fiasco to my first two opponents having magical "had-it" fairies hidden in their shirt pockets sprinkling mise dust on their decks at all points. That's not really productive, though, and I know it's not. Still, part of me wants to leave it at that to shield my ego--I feel like I have been pretty darn well prepared for RTR sealed. In the spirit of "observe, don't criticize," now that I have a bit of distance from the emotions from earlier today, here's a mistake I remember making. This happened round 1, game 3.
My opponent attacks with Desecration Demon into my Trestle Troll, leaving his Dreg Mangler back. I put him on not knowing Troll has reach. I have mana to regenerate once but not twice. The plan is to block the Demon with the Troll for a turn or two and hit my sixth land so I can solve the problem permanently by casting Chaos Imps.
I've gotten into the habit of playing my combat tricks before I declare blockers. This is sometimes correct, like when knowing whether they will kill the guy you pump affects your other decisions, but it sometimes isn't. This wasn't one of the correct times. What I should have done was said "can I declare blockers?" and blocked the demon. What happened was I said "regenerate my guy, block the Demon." My opponent is surprised that Trestle Troll has reach, and upon confirming that it does Street Spasms the troll for 4. I ask "When?" and he says in response to the regeneration ability being activated.
Now, looking back, it's possible I should have pressed to allow my block to stand because it seems like he's not willing to kill the troll unless it's blocking the demon, and he clearly didn't know that it could block the demon.
I could have spared myself the trouble, however, by saying "Go do declare blockers?" to make sure my Troll gets to block on that turn. There's a chance that's enough of a prompt for him to figure out my guy has reach, but who knows.
I almost certainly would have won the game with six extra life points. I stabilized on 2 with both of us in topdeck mode, me with Street spasms and a 5/5 and him empty with a 3/4 hexproof. Being able to take even a single hit probably would have been enough, as I had to blow the Street Spasm to kill a Guttersnipe and an 0/2 defender when I was 1 mana short of being able to deal 4 to his team, killing the hexproof guy. Maybe it's right to try to topdeck a land before he topdecks an instant or sorcery that doesn't just kill me outright without Guttersnipe, but I didn't think it was worth the risk given that I would be ahead on board, albeit slightly, if I pulled the trigger then. Lending evidence to my "had-it" fairies theory, my opponent revealed that he was going to topdeck a not-otherwise-immediately-lethal Rites of Reaping the turn after I killed Guttersnipe.
My primary goal for this PTQ season is to qualify; this means either a PTQ win or a GP top 4. My secondary goal is to hit the Planeswalker Points threshold for 2 byes for next season, which is relevant because GP Atlantic City is drivable. I'm currently sitting on 316 points and need 750. Assuming I average 5 match wins at each of the remaining PTQs (for about 100 points each) and go X-3 at GP Philly (missing day 2, good for about 185 points), and further assuming I pick up 50 points through FNMs and side events, I'm looking at another 525 points or so, which puts me comfortably at 841. 90 points of wiggle room is nice. I'd rather not have to go chasing those 50 FNM/side event points if I can help it. 1500 Planeswalker Points and three byes seem to be substantially out of reach. If I somehow manage to go deep into day two at the GP, I'll revisit whether it's possible.
Unless I win a grinder--and that's not entirely unlikely--I'll be heading to Philly with one bye. I'm thinking day 1 will be eight rounds, making my target record in actual matches 5-2. I'll be back in two weeks to recount my GP: Philly experience.
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